Making plans for Nigel: The opportunity facing Farage is so huge it is likely to prove irresistible
I have seen new polling analysis which points towards a Farage-led Reform party beating the Tory vote share if Sunak is still in post by the time of the general election.
HOW big is the political opportunity that is looming for Nigel Farage and is he going to take it?
When I worked alongside him during the run-up to Brexit, the choice of sitting out the 2015 general election didn’t really exist. We were trying to force an In-Out referendum and UKIP needed to be breathing down the necks of the two main parties in order to maximise the chances of that happening. This was our bread and butter work.
But Brexit finally got done and Farage’s place in history is secure. Since then he has forged for himself a stellar new career as an award-winning current affairs broadcaster and created an intriguing sideline as Donald Trump’s key British political ally.
Were he to sit out the 2024 general election then certainly he would be criticised by many former allies, but in time that would amount to no more than a footnote in accounts of his brilliant career.
So this time round he really does have a choice. If he steers clear of the UK contest then it still looks very likely that Reform UK will poll quite strongly – perhaps securing an eight to ten per cent vote share – and contributing to the extent of what looks to be an epic upcoming Tory defeat.
But if he steps back into the fray, how much better might it be for the insurgent right-wing party? Could it win parliamentary seats? Could it even eclipse the Tory share of the national vote? That latter prospect must still be ranked as a long shot given the extent of media coverage that will seek to frame the election as a two-way fight for Downing Street between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
And yet, I have just been made privy to some fascinating polling analysis by a highly-regarded pollster that points to the possibility of a Farage-led Reform doing just that. This shows Farage almost matching the overall leadership ratings of Starmer among all voters – an incredible situation given that a good third of the electorate which strongly supported Remain is always likely to express strong negativity about him. But the data I have seen shows Farage just two points behind Starmer in net favourability among all voters. More tellingly still, he is 25 points ahead of Sunak on that yardstick.
Yet it is when one breaks down the electorate into key voter groups that the full extent of Farage’s looming opportunity becomes clear. Among 2019 Tory voters, Farage is running 42 points ahead of Sunak (and a thumping 84 points ahead of Starmer). Among 2016 Leave voters, he is 61 points ahead of Sunak and 70 points clear of Starmer. Among C2DE voters (working class voter groups), he is 19 points ahead of Starmer and 36 points ahead of Sunak.
Among voters in the Midlands, Farage is five points ahead of Starmer and 19 points ahead of Sunak. Among voters in the north of England, he is level with Starmer and a crushing 41 points ahead of Sunak.
These results point to a variety of things. First, his appearance on I’m A Celebrity really did Farage a power of good as far as completing the decontamination of his brand among all but hardline pro-Remain and “progressive” middle class voters. Secondly, his consistent advocacy of low immigration and campaign to highlight the outrage of illegal Channel crossings has also paid dividends.
When it comes to people who voted Leave in 2016, less than one in four say they trust Sunak to deal with immigration. But more than half would trust Farage to do so. Remember, this is the top political issue for such voters.
And while the Tory brand has lost enormous ground over the past five tumultuous years, Farage’s has strengthened among all voter groups. Another key finding is that it stood at +5 per cent among those who voted Tory at the time of the last general election, but stands at +26 per cent with the same group now.
He may wish that it were not so and that he could be permitted simply to influence the course of politics via his journalism, but the inevitable conclusion from these statistics is that Nigel Farage is in a position potentially to deliver the biggest earthquake that the British political system has seen in living memory – bigger even than Brexit.
Because the perceived quality of leader matters in British elections almost more than any other factor and Farage is beating Sunak out of sight on that score.
Without him, a Richard Tice-led Reform is likely to perform creditably but still be squeezed by the media binary and the first past the post electoral system. With him, the large swathes of the electorate which are dejected and unenthused about both main party leaders suddenly have a dynamic and exciting new choice available.
Were I advising Farage, I would tell him that despite these truly extraordinary electoral trends, he does not have to make his big decision yet. There is even a school
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